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Dubai Crisis

Crisis dubai? ... Is this going to delay the economic recovery of the world? I think we should not rush expect much.
 Dubai is stuck with a glut of real estate that no one wants to buy or rent.
Creditors and markets had always assumed that when push came to shove, its oil-rich neighbor Abu Dhabi would bail out Dubai.

Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum, chairman of the Supreme Fiscal Committee said, “Our intervention in Dubai World was carefully planned and reflects its specific financial position.”

He added that “further information will be made available early next week.”

Dubai might not be able to pay its bills sent a wave of uncertainty rippling through markets just as investors thought the worst of the global financial instability was over.

On Wednesday, as Dubai asked lenders for a six-month reprieve on payments for about 60 billion U.S. dollars in debt, investors were worried that the debt problems in the middle-east emirate would spill over to the world, hampering the global economic recovery. Due to this, Confidence of Western investors across the Gulf has been shaken.

“Whether you are Dubai, Greece, Spain, Ireland or the U.K., you can print as much money as you want, but at the end of the day you have to pay the interest on your debt.”

Light, sweet crude for January delivery finally dropped 1.91 dollars, or 2.5 percent, to settle at 76.05 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Dubai has seen a surge in extravagant building projects, with vast skyscrapers springing up in the desert state, but it has suffered in the global financial crisis. Most of its debt is held by state-backed companies.

During this recession, one more crisis to hamper the world’s growth, after all, this is advanced globalization where every country is interconnected.

Colombia’s Peso Declines as Dubai Debt Concerns Hurt Demand

By Andrea Jaramillo

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Colombia’s peso declined as Dubai’s proposal to delay debt payments spurred concern about emerging markets and reduced demand for higher-yielding assets.

The peso fell 0.3 percent to 1,981.05 per U.S. dollar at 2:15 p.m. New York time, from 1,974.45 yesterday. With U.S. markets closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday, Colombia’s currency and bonds trade in the so-called next-day market, in which payment and delivery are made the following trading day.

Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, sought a “standstill” agreement from creditors, triggering risk of the biggest sovereign default since Argentina halted payments on $95 billion of bonds in 2001. The cost of protecting government notes across the Persian Gulf rose, extending the steepest increase since February.

“That’s definitely a shock to the credit markets,” said Andres Pardo, head analyst at Corporacion Financiera Colombiana SA. “That uncertainty added to the lack of liquidity in markets because of the U.S. holiday is hurting demand.”

The yield on the Colombia’s 11 percent benchmark bonds due in July 2020 rose five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 7.92 percent, according to Colombia’s stock exchange.

The Finance Ministry yesterday announced plans to carry out a debt swap this week to extend the maturities of its local debt while taking advantage of lower borrowing costs. The central bank on Nov. 23 unexpectedly reduced the overnight lending rate to a record low of 3.5 percent, which pushed the yield on the government’s benchmark bonds due in 2020 to a three-year low.

Colombia Debt Swap

The government will offer investors fixed-rate bonds due in July 2024 and new April 2013 and June 2016 notes in exchange for inflation-linked and fixed-rate debt maturing between 2010 and 2018. Investors have until today to tender their debt and results will be announced tomorrow.

In Chile, the peso slipped 0.3 percent to 494.55 per dollar, from 493 yesterday. The yield for a basket of Chile’s 10-year peso bonds in inflation-linked currency units, called unidades de fomento, fell one basis point to 3.29 percent, according to Bloomberg composite prices.

Argentina’s peso climbed 0.1 percent to 3.7986 per dollar from 3.8030 yesterday. The yield on the country’s inflation- linked peso bonds due in 2033 rose 25 basis points to 10.77 percent, according to Citibank Argentina.

Peru’s sol declined 0.4 percent to 2.8945 per dollar, from 2.8825 yesterday. The yield on Peru’s 8.6 percent sol- denominated bond due August 2017 was little changed at 5.01 percent, according to Bloomberg prices.

Venezuela’s bolivar slid 0.9 percent to 5.50 per dollar in unregulated parallel market trading from 5.45 yesterday, traders said. Venezuelans buy dollars in the parallel market when they can’t get government authorization to purchase them at the official exchange rate of 2.15 per dollar.

Canada’s Dollar Falls Most in 4 Weeks as Dubai Spurs Selling

By Chris Fournier

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart by the most since Oct. 30 as Dubai’s plan to reschedule its debt spurred a sell-off in crude oil, gold and equities.

The Canadian currency fell 1.3 percent to C$1.0589 per U.S. dollar at 5:11 p.m. in Toronto, from C$1.0453 yesterday, when it reached C$1.0451, the strongest level since Nov. 18. One Canadian dollar buys 94.43 U.S. cents.

“Lower equities, gold and crude combined have pushed the Canadian dollar lower in early trading,” said Michael Leavitt, a Montreal-based institutional-derivatives broker at MF Global Canada Co.

Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, sought a “standstill” agreement from creditors. Its debt includes $3.52 billion of bonds due Dec. 14 from property unit Nakheel PJSC.

“The Dubai World restructuring news has caught the market’s collective attention in a big and not so nice way,” Jack Spitz, managing director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto wrote in a note to clients. The news has “momentarily shaken confidence and as a result commodities and all risk-related vehicles are being sold off.”

Crude for January delivery fell 2.2 percent to $76.23 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold for immediate delivery slid $3.42 to $1,188.38 an ounce in London, after reaching a record for the third time this week. Canada relies on raw materials for more than half its export revenue.

Stocks Slump

The MSCI World Index, a gauge of equities in 23 developed nations, fell 1.4 percent. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index tumbled 3.2 percent, the most in 7 months.

U.S. markets are closed today for Thanksgiving, which may lead to “slow trading” in the Canadian dollar, said Leavitt.

Canada’s dollar, nicknamed the loonie, is up 15 percent this year on a rebound in commodity prices. The currency will appreciate to C$1.03 against the greenback by the end of the first quarter next year, according to the median forecast of 35 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Government bonds rose, pushing the 10-year’s yield down six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 3.20 percent, the lowest since May 20. The price of the 3.75 percent security maturing in June 2019 rose 49 cents to C$104.52.

Mexico Peso Falls Most in More Than Four Weeks on Dubai Concern

By Carlos Manuel Rodriguez

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s peso fell the most in four weeks as Dubai’s attempt to reschedule debt payment shook investor confidence in emerging markets.

The peso weakened 1.4 percent to 13.0142 per U.S. dollar at 5:02 p.m. New York time, from 12.8315 yesterday. Demand for pesos also fell as crude oil, Mexico’s biggest export, fell 2.2 percent to $76.23 a barrel.

“Dubai caused some nervousness that affected the stock and currency markets,” said Alonso Madero, who helps manage 60 billion pesos in assets at Actinver SA in Mexico City. “The Dubai concerns should dispel in the coming days.”

Dubai World, the government investment company burdened by $59 billion of liabilities, roiled markets around the world by seeking to delay repayment on much of its debt.

Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s cut the ratings on Dubai state companies yesterday, saying they may consider state-controlled Dubai World’s plan to delay debt payments a default.

Yields on benchmark government peso-denominated bonds due in 2024 rose six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 8.14 percent. The bond’s price fell 0.51 centavo to 116.10 centavos per peso, according to Banco Santander SA.

Yields have fallen eight basis points this week as Fitch Ratings’s decision to shift Mexico’s outlook to stable after cutting the rating one level to BBB on Nov. 23 damped investor concern more downgrades would follow. S&P, which has a negative outlook on Mexico’s BBB+ rating, the third-lowest investment- grade rating, hasn’t decided whether to cut it as falling oil output swells the country’s budget gap.

‘Killing the Market’

S&P will likely decide against cutting Mexico’s rating, helping the peso rally to 12.50 per dollar in coming months, Madero said in a phone interview.

“Remittances keep coming, the international reserves levels are good, the fiscal reform should help,” Madero said. “The uncertainty about a rating cut was killing the market, and now it is gone.”

The peso will trade at 13 per dollar by year-end, according to the median forecast of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The currency has appreciated 5.3 percent this year, the fourth-worst performance among the 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg, ahead of Singapore’s dollar, Japan’s yen and Taiwan’s dollar.

Yen Strengthens to 14-Year High on Risk Aversion, Stock Losses

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened to a 14-year high against the dollar, climbing past 85 to the greenback and prompting speculation Japan will intervene in markets to preserve the nation’s export-led economic recovery.

Japan’s currency pared most of its gain after Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said he will contact U.S. and European officials about exchange rates if needed. The Bank of Japan checked rates at commercial banks in Tokyo, seen as a type of verbal intervention, Kyodo News Service reported. The yen and dollar rose versus their main counterparts after Dubai’s proposal to delay debt payments fueled a slide in higher- yielding assets.

“Below 85 yen we’ll see a gradual increase in intervention rhetoric,” said Paul Robson, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “The Japanese economy is already lagging from the impact of the exchange rate. It seems the market underestimated the implications of what came out of Dubai and we’ve seen a scramble to close down short-term positions.”

The yen climbed as high as 84.83 per dollar, the strongest level since July 1995, before trading at 86.26 as of 8:27 a.m. in London, from 86.59 yesterday in New York. The currency appreciated to 128.09 per euro, from 130.03, after reaching 126.91, the highest level since April 29. The euro dropped to $1.4854, from $1.5019.

New Zealand’s currency slid as much as 3.3 percent to 59.91 yen, the lowest level since July 16, and has dropped 6.1 percent this month. The so-called kiwi weakened to 70.41 U.S. cents, from 71.54 cents.

‘Systemic Risk’

“A combination of systemic-risk fears and thin market liquidity due to the U.S. holiday season has proven to be a combustible mix,” Gareth Berry, a Singapore-based currency analyst at UBS AG, wrote today. “The wider fallout has simply revealed how fragile both markets and risk appetite still are.”

The dollar headed for the worst month since December against the yen before a report next week that economists said will show U.S. business activity declined, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs near zero.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc.’s business barometer fell to 53 in November from 54.2 the prior month, according to a Bloomberg News survey before the Nov. 30 report. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index dropped to 54.8 in November from 55.7 in October, according to a separate Bloomberg News survey before the data is released next week.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed yesterday a 30 percent chance the Fed will raise rates by June, down from 67 percent odds a month ago.

Three-month yen London interbank offered rates, or Libor, stood at 0.296 percent yesterday, higher than the 0.254 percent rate for dollar loans, according to British Bankers’ Association data. Dollar loans became cheaper than those in yen in August.

‘Benign Neglect’

“Unless the U.S. drops its benign-neglect policy on the weakness of the dollar and until its interest-rate outlook improves, the yen will remain hostage to appreciation risk,” said Koichi Kurose, chief strategist in Tokyo at Resona Bank Ltd.

Fed officials said in minutes of their Nov. 3-4 meeting released on Nov. 24 that the dollar’s decline has been “orderly” and that they would watch for any signs that the depreciation is pushing up people’s expectations for inflation.

Shizuka Kamei, Japan’s financial services minister, today urged for an international response to halt the yen’s advance, while Trade Minister Masayuki Naoshima said the stronger currency “is threatening the competitiveness of Japanese exporters.” Fujio Mitarai, head of Japan’s biggest business lobby and chief executive officer of Canon Inc., said Japan needs “urgent steps to counter this critical situation.”

‘Some Respect’

“The market showed some respect to a stronger warning from the government today and bought back the dollar,” said Takashi Kudo, director of foreign-exchange sales in Tokyo at NTT SmartTrade Inc., a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. “The impact of verbal intervention will not last so long unless the government takes actual action.”

Japan hasn’t sold its currency since March 16, 2004, when it traded around 109 per dollar. The Bank of Japan sold 14.8 trillion yen ($172 billion) in the first three months of 2004, after record sales of 20.4 trillion yen in 2003. Japan last bought the currency in 1998, purchasing 3.05 trillion yen as the rate fell as low as 147.66.

“At a time when the recovery is expected to be gradual, an appreciating yen is of extreme concern,” said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “The government will take some kind of action.”

Stocks Fall

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 3.2 percent, on course for a 9.5 percent slide this month. The MSCI Asia Pacific of regional shares lost 3.2 percent.

“The stability of the yen is indispensable to reinvigorating the stock market,” said Haruki Takahashi, general manager of equity dealing at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. “Stock investors are crying for help. If the current situation continues, the Kabuto-cho will become a ghost town.” Kabuto-cho is the region in the capital where the Tokyo Stock Exchange is located.

　The Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened after Dubai’s attempt to reschedule debt sparked a global slump in equities. Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, has sought a “standstill” agreement from creditors.

“Coming into November month-end and then year-end, we are going to see more pressure on equity markets,” said Ray Attrill, global research director at Forecast Ltd. in Sydney. “Because the Aussie and kiwi have been the outperforming currencies on the way up, we’d expect them to suffer in this kind of mood.”